Tuesday, March 13, 2012

NCDEX CHANA TIPS


RUPEE: At One-Week High
Mar-13-2012

Date: 13.03.2012



The Indian rupee climbed higher at commencement on Tuesday, March 13, 2012 following the US dollar that pared some of its gains overnight and on hopes of foreign fund inflows post a strong domestic industrial output released yesterday. The domestic currency opened up 8 paise at Rs. 49.88 to a dollar, highest in a week and dipped to a low of 49.94 before rebounding back to 49.79 so far during the day. Local equities also hovered in the positive terrain alongside most regional peers. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 49.84, higher 13 paise or 0.26% as compared to previous close at 49.96.

Domestic benchmark indices surged in early trade on firm Asian equities on optimism that the euro-area finance chiefs will complete the second Greek bailout. Meanwhile, industrial production grew 6.8% in January 2012 from a year earlier, sharply higher than a revised 2.5% rise in December 2011, helped by a strong rebound in manufacturing output, data released by the government on Monday, 12 March 2012, showed. Manufacturing output, which has a 75.5% weight in the index of industrial production, rose 8.5% from a year earlier in January. It had risen a revised 2.6% on year in December. Electricity production increased 3.2% from a year earlier in January while capital goods output shrank 1.5%.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) made substantial purchases of Indian stocks over the past two trading sessions. FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 1298.64 crore on Monday, 12 March 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, India's key benchmark BSE Sensex is up 215 points at around 17803 while S&P CNX Nifty is higher by 69 points to be at 5428.

In the meantime, the European unit rebounded overnight against the US dollar after having battered sharply to a low of 1.3078 yesterday. Commodities have rebounded in the Asian session today, supported by weakness in US Dollar. EURUSD has bounced off its Monday low, rising to fresh intraweek high of 1.3190, supported by comments from Euro group head Juncker that Greece's EUR 130 bln worth second bailout package would be approved later this week. The pair however failed to hold on to its early Asian highs and is currently seen at 1.3158 versus the greenback.

In the domestic currency futures market on the NSE, the forward month 28 March 12' contract opened on Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 50.01, higher than the spot market rupee. The contract hit an intraday high at 50.14 and registered a low at around 49.98 so far during the day. At the time of writing, the NSE March 2012 USD/INR contract was trading at around 50.02, lower by 16 paise or 0.32% as compared to previous close at 50.18.

Having weakened during the early Asian trades, the dollar is seen gaining back strength against most major currencies in turn adding pressure to rupee and other regional peers. The USD INR pair is likely to edge higher for a while although positive local equities may limit any sharp rise. The pair could rise to around 50.10 levels and edge lower for a possible test of 49.95.
 
RBI Reference Rate
Date
USD
GBP
EURO
YEN
12-MAR-12
49.94
78.25
65.40
60.72
% Change*
0.14
0.96
1.18
0.96
*As against previous working day
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