CURRENCY DAILY REPORT
13April – 2012
CURRENCY RESISTANCE & SUPPORT LEVELS
| SCHEME | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 |
| USD INR | 51.7088 | 51.7875 | 51.9125 | 52.0538 | 51.5675 | 51.5050 | 51.3475 | 51.2063 |
| EUR INR | 67.9575 | 68.0892 | 68.2633 | 68.4821 | 67.7388 | 67.6517 | 67.3883 | 67.1696 |
| TRADINGIDEAS  TRADING IDEAS GOLDEN OPTION INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO MCX COMMODITY INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO NCDEX AGRI INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO CURRENCY INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO |
Rupee hit by dollar demand from oil refiners; more falls seen
The rupee fell on Thursday, erasing earlier gains, weighed by dollar demand from local oil refiners and on continued concerns over foreign portfolio flows. However, expectations for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India next week after much weaker-than-expected industrial output data bolstered stock markets, providing some support for the rupee, traders said.
Still, traders expect the rupee to remain under pressure, as a widening current account deficit and doubts about foreign capital flows keep investors on edge.
"Market is nervous about continuation of FII flows especially after the Budget, since flows are needed to bridge the huge current account gap. And this fear is keeping rupee under pressure," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, vice-president at Mecklai Financials.
The rupee ended at 51.5800/5850 to the dollar compared with Wednesday's close of 51.42/43. It had risen as high as 51.2950 in early trades most likely on dollar sales by some foreign banks, dealers said. Still, traders expect the rupee to remain under pressure, as a widening current account deficit and doubts about foreign capital flows keep investors on edge.
"Market is nervous about continuation of FII flows especially after the Budget, since flows are needed to bridge the huge current account gap. And this fear is keeping rupee under pressure," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, vice-president at Mecklai Financials.
The rupee remains in a downtrend, with next support seen at the 51.64 low on Wednesday and support after that seen at 52.13, the 61.8% retracement from the December 15 low to the February 6 high.
Not all analysts are pessimistic on the rupee. Nomura said it retains its long call on the rupee, eyeing a break of 50 over the next three months, though recommending options trades to avoid the expected volatility.
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